Where should your care business expand next? A 5-step guide for care providers

Choosing a new local authority area for your care service? Use this 5-step framework: commissioning intentions, needs data, workforce, CQC fit and fees.

Most care providers pick their next area the same way: a chat with a commissioner, a hunch about demand, and a property that happens to come up. It works sometimes. But the evidence to do it properly is public. It is just scattered across five or six different places.

Here is how to pull it together, so you grow where a council actually wants you and you can actually deliver.

The 5-question test

For any area you are considering, ask:

Intent: does the council's Market Position Statement or commissioning strategy name your type of service?
Evidence: does the needs data back that up?
Pipeline: is there a supported housing strategy, or a timetable for one?
Capacity: can you recruit locally at the rates the council pays?
Readiness: do your CQC registration, property route and governance cover the area?

Score each area out of 5. A shortlist of 3 areas scoring 4 or 5 is far more useful than a long list scoring 2. Here is what to check for each.

1. What does the council say it wants?

Under section 5 of the Care Act 2014, local authorities must promote an efficient and effective market in care and support, which includes keeping track of current and future demand and supporting a skilled workforce.

Many councils publish a Market Position Statement to say where they are heading. The Care Act does not require one, but Kent County Council, for example, describes its statement as a way to share its "direction of travel" and its "expectations of and promises to" providers, so they can adapt their business plans (Kent County Council). Read the statement and the commissioning strategy first. They tell you what the council intends to buy, not just what already exists.

2. Does the evidence back it up?

A stated priority is only useful if the data supports it. Every area publishes a Joint Strategic Needs Assessment, built by the council and NHS partners and led by the Director of Public Health (Local Government Association). Use it to check whether the Market Position Statement describes a real, growing need or a hope.

National figures add context. At 31 March 2025, 276,000 people aged 18 to 64 were receiving long-term support from councils, and 137,000 people aged 18 to 64 received long-term learning disability support during 2024/25 (DHSC, Adult social care activity report 2024 to 2025). That report is now published by DHSC using Client Level Data, and was previously published by NHS England, so older guides may cite the earlier collection.

Local numbers vary hugely. In Census 2021, 17.7% of people in England were disabled under the Equality Act 2010, but the figure ranged from 24.7% in Blackpool to 11.8% in the City of London (ONS). National averages hide big local differences.

3. Is there a supported housing strategy?

The Supported Housing (Regulatory Oversight) Act 2023 requires local housing authorities in England to review the supported exempt accommodation in their district and publish a supported housing strategy. It must assess availability and likely need over 5 years and be refreshed every 5 years. The first deadline is still to be set in regulations, and councils must have regard to the strategy in their work (Act, section 2).

Where a strategy exists, it is a rare piece of forward-looking evidence. Where it does not yet, ask the council when it expects to publish.

4. Can you staff it?

Winning a contract you cannot staff is one of the most common reasons expansions stall. Skills for Care estimated 1.59 million filled posts in adult social care in England in 2025/26, with a vacancy rate of 6.2% and 96,000 vacant posts, the lowest rate since 2015/16 (Skills for Care, 2026 report).

Local figures differ, and Skills for Care notes that its data coverage varies by sector, service and area. The South East, for example, had a 7.0% vacancy rate and 31.7% turnover in 2024/25 (Skills for Care, regional summary). Use the local interactive data, then sense-check it by asking how many similar providers are recruiting in the same postcode.

5. Are you ready: property, CQC and fees?

Property supply decides whether a promising area is deliverable at all. Our guides on sourcing supported living properties and demand mapping cover that ground.

On regulation, supported living providers of personal care need to complete CQC's additional information form, so confirm your registration covers the activity and the new location before you bid (CQC, "Download forms to apply to register as a new provider"). Our guide to writing a vacancy listing shows what to include once your scheme is up and running.

Then check fees. The ADASS Spring Survey 2026 reports a council average homecare rate of £25.05 an hour for 2026/27, against a Homecare Association recommended rate of £34.42. Regional variation is generally modest, but some councils are outliers. That is a homecare figure, not a supported living one, but it shows why you should model each council's actual rates rather than assuming a national number.

Why this takes so long

Each signal lives somewhere different: council websites, statistical releases, workforce dashboards, regulator forms. Gathering them for even 3 areas takes weeks, and it is out of date as soon as you finish.

OTHRS is being built to bring commissioning intentions, local need, workforce context and property supply for an area into one view, so you can compare areas side by side before you spend time on tenders.

Frequently asked questions

What should a care provider look at first when choosing a new area?

Start with the council's Market Position Statement and commissioning strategy, which set out its direction of travel and what it plans to buy. Then check whether the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment supports that direction.

Are councils required to publish a supported housing strategy?

Yes. Under section 2 of the Supported Housing (Regulatory Oversight) Act 2023, local housing authorities in England must review supported exempt accommodation in their district and publish a strategy. The first deadline is to be set in regulations, so check each council's website for progress.

Where can I find workforce data for a specific area?

Skills for Care publishes national and regional summaries and has interactive tools at local level. It cautions that data coverage varies by area.

Do I need to change my CQC registration to expand?

It depends on your service and the activity you will deliver. CQC requires supported living providers of personal care to complete an additional information form with their application. Check directly with CQC before committing to a new location.

Compare areas before you commit. See how OTHRS is being built to help care providers do it.